Who actually beats Vegas?

Media experts pick every NFL game, every week, in public — and nobody checks their work. We do. Every published pick from ESPN, NFL.com, ProFootballTalk, and Fantasy Nerds is recorded before kickoff, scored against the final result, and rated against the simplest baseline in football: always take the favorite. Most experts lose to it.

104Pickers tracked
47,370Picks graded
2015–2025Seasons covered
DMedian grade

Ratings

All 82 pickers with 100+ recorded picks, ranked by rating — recency-weighted performance against the take-the-favorite baseline. A grade of C means matching Vegas; 67 of 82 rate D or worse. Click a column to sort.

#Picker OutletSeasons PicksWin% vs VegasGrade
1FanDuelFanDuel2021–25114968.3+1.9A+
2DraftKingsDraftKings2021–25101967.0+1.5A+
3Chris SimmsProFootballTalk202526866.8+1.5A
4Brandon SysakGridiron Experts202126765.9+3.7A
5Regan HolgateWXIX-TV202527165.7+0.4A-
6Doug BurrellGridiron Experts2022–2481168.6+0.1A-
7Laura RutledgeESPN202127064.8+2.6B+
8Anthony CervinoFF Faceoff202125864.7+1.9B+
9Craig MillerDallas Morning News202127163.8+1.5B
10Newy ScruggsDallas Morning News202127163.8+1.5B
11Rob NinkovichESPN202125563.5+1.2B-
12Ryan MinerFF Faceoff202221065.2+0.5B-
13Phillip CaldwellFF Faceoff202120763.8+1.0C+
14Kevin SeifertESPN202127162.7+0.4C+
15Dana LarsonDallas Morning News202127062.6+0.4C
16Calvin WatkinsDallas Morning News202127162.0−0.4D+
17Brendan O'BryanFF Faceoff202124060.8−0.4D+
18Austin AmandoliaFF Faceoff202125562.4−0.4D+
19Leo SellsGridiron Experts2023–2428469.4+0.7D+
20Michael GehlkenDallas Morning News202127161.6−0.7D+
21Kevin SherringtonDallas Morning News202127161.6−0.7D+
22Dan ParrNFL.com202527165.3+0.0D+
23Damon MarxDallas Morning News202127160.9−1.5D+
24Seth KellerGridiron Experts202123161.5−1.7D+
25Kyle SalamidoGridiron Experts202117857.3−2.8D+
26Jean-Jacques TaylorDallas Morning News202126960.6−1.9D+
27Jarrett BellUSA Today2022–2331364.2−1.6D+
28Sam AchoESPN202127160.5−1.8D+
29Yahoo UsersYahoo Sports2021–2594466.0+0.4D+
30Joey OwensGridiron Experts202212157.9−3.3D+
31Brian JonesFantasy Nerds202226964.3−1.9D+
32Mike WagenmanGridiron Experts202127158.7−3.7D+
33Lawrence IaconaGridiron Experts202220661.7−2.9D
34Jeremy MaussCollege Football News202311865.2−3.4D
35Aaron SchillFF Faceoff202226163.2−3.1D
36Michael David SmithNBC Sports202226962.8−3.3D
37Brad CastronovoGridiron Experts2021–2247762.5−0.8D
38Domonique FoxworthESPN2021–2244660.8−2.2D
39Tim CowlishawDallas Morning News2021–2362764.1+0.3D
40David MooreDallas Morning News202127155.7−6.6D
41Mike FanelliFF Faceoff202225562.0−4.3D
42Pete FiutakCollege Football News2022–2341764.3−2.2D
43Gabb GoudyFanDuel2022–2315151.7−9.3D
44Benjamin DitlevsonFF Faceoff202221058.6−6.2D
45Jason La CanforaCBS2021–2246459.9−3.9D
46Nick ShepkowskiCollege Football News202226760.7−5.6D
47Brooke CersosimoNFL.com202527164.2−1.1D
48Gregg RosenthalNFL2022–2339263.5−2.8D
49Bill BenderSporting News202322762.1−4.8D
50Lorenzo ReyesUSA Today2022–2344563.4−3.1D-
51Tom BlairNFL.com202527164.2−1.1D-
52Gennaro FiliceNFL.com202527163.8−1.5D-
53Mike FlorioProFootballTalk2022–2570264.8−1.3D-
54Nate DavisUSA Today2022–2346263.2−3.9D-
55Geoff LambertGoingFor2.com202511966.4−4.2D-
56Ethan McReynoldsFox 13 Seattle202523664.0−2.1D-
57Jamey EisenbergCBS Sports2021–25119166.3−1.1D-
58Ali BhanpuriNFL.com202527163.1−2.2D-
59Kimberley A. MartinESPN202427266.2−5.1D-
60Matt BowenESPN2016–25262864.3−2.3D-
61Cody BenjaminCBS Sports202527162.0−3.3D-
62Greg KelloggThe Sports Affiliation202527061.9−3.3D-
63Steve GardnerUSA Today202526861.2−3.7D-
64James BryerGridiron Experts2022–2451756.5−9.7D-
65Jason ReidESPN2019–25147263.3−3.3D-
66Nick RothschildDenver7202525660.6−3.9D-
67Pamela MaldonadoESPN202527160.5−4.8F
68Pete PriscoCBS Sports2021–25127663.5−3.2F
69Jeremy FowlerESPN2021–25135563.5−3.2F
70Lindsey ThiryESPN2023–2581564.2−4.0F
71Dave RichardCBS Sports2021–2599963.6−1.7F
72Mike ClayESPN2017–25237563.6−3.3F
73Ryan WilsonCBS Sports2021–25126563.9−2.8F
74Eric MoodyESPN2023–2581564.9−3.3F
75Tyler SullivanCBS Sports2023–2559163.3−4.4F
76John BreechCBS Sports2021–25127063.2−3.3F
77Will BrinsonCBS2021–2478659.8−6.5F
78Jared DubinCBS Sports2021–25120564.2−2.2F
79Stephania BellESPN2022–2596562.6−5.4F
80Kalyn KahlerESPN2024–2554361.1−7.2F
81Seth WickershamESPN2015–25288459.9−6.4F
82Dan GrazianoESPN2016–25262960.5−6.2F

The two highest-rated pickers are sportsbooks. Make of that what you will.

22 more pickers tracked without enough picks to rate

Under 100 recorded picks; tracked but unrated: John Miller (NBC 26), Kelly Hallinan (NBC 26), Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News), Scott Smith (FOX 13 Tampa Bay), Dom Tibbetts (WKBW-TV), Warren Kiessling (Gridiron Experts), Brandon Hamer (Gridiron Experts), Woody Damien (ESPN), Ryan Morgan (Belly Up Sports), Jake Watkins (Trainwreck Sports), Will Holtz (Gridiron Experts), Steve DeAngelo (FF Faceoff), Tyler Biedron (Trainwreck Sports), Ryan Hicks (Belly Up Sports), Matt MacKay (FF Faceoff), Michael Hauff (FF Faceoff), Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts), Colleen Wolfe (NFL), Boris (Gridiron Experts), Jeremy Rauch (WXIX-TV), Mike Cairns (Spectrum Sports), Joe Reedy (Associated Press).

Graded on a curve

Distribution of the 82 rated pickers. The shelf on the left is everyone beating or matching Vegas; the spike on the right is everyone else.

Notable

FanDuel

A+

FanDuel · 1149 picks · 68.3% · +1.9 vs Vegas

The highest-rated picker on the board is a sportsbook. Five seasons of data, and the only picker who beats the favorite baseline by a wide margin. The best predictor of NFL games is the entity that sets the prices on them.

Chris Simms

A

ProFootballTalk · 268 picks · 66.8% · +1.5 vs Vegas

One season on file, but a real one: 268 picks at 66.8% against a 65.3% baseline. One of very few humans who beats the strategy that requires no thought.

Dan Graziano

F

ESPN · 2629 picks · 60.5% · −6.2 vs Vegas

Ten seasons of professional picks, 6.2 points behind the no-thought baseline — the lowest rating on the board. Grading on a curve would not help; Dan is the curve.

Seth Wickersham

F

ESPN · 2884 picks · 59.9% · −6.4 vs Vegas

On the board all eleven seasons. The feature writing is award-winning. The picks run 6.4 points behind a strategy summarized in full as: take the favorite.